For fifty years the retirement formula was simple. Sell the house up north, buy in Florida, never see snow again.
In 2025 that formula stopped working. Florida still attracted more retirees than any other state, 45,696 people age 65 and up. But 44,881 retirees left the same year. Net gain: 815 people. In a state of 23 million.
Where did the leavers go? Mostly to the Carolinas and East Tennessee. Moving companies call them “halfbacks,” people who went all the way south and are now coming halfway back. This guide explains why, with real numbers, and is honest about what Florida still does better.
Why are retirees leaving Florida in 2026?
Three costs have changed the math: homeowners insurance, property taxes for anyone buying or moving within the state, and the accumulated toll of hurricane seasons. Add crowding. Florida’s largest counties, including Miami-Dade, Broward, Orange, Hillsborough, and Pinellas, all lost residents to other places in 2025. Statewide, net domestic migration fell from over 200,000 a year during the pandemic to about 22,000.
None of this means Florida is emptying out. It means the advantage that pulled people there has narrowed to the point where many retirees are asking whether the beach is worth the bill.
Florida vs Tennessee homeowners insurance: what will you actually pay?
This is the single biggest line item, and it is not close.
| Florida | Knoxville area, TN | |
|---|---|---|
| Average quoted premium, $300K dwelling coverage (2026) | $8,471 | $2,432 |
| Estimated premium, $1.5M waterfront home | $15,000 to $25,000+ (wind and flood added) | $4,000 to $6,000 |
| National average, $300K dwelling coverage | $2,872 |
Luxury-home figures are estimates; no published average exists for waterfront policies above $1 million. The $300,000 figures are from Insurance.com’s summer 2026 rate survey.
Florida’s number is nearly three times the U.S. average. Coastal counties run two to three times inland counties for identical homes, and older roofs pay the most. Rates did stabilize in 2026, and Citizens, the state-backed insurer, cut standard policies about 8.7 percent. But stabilizing at triple the national average is still triple the national average.
East Tennessee sits well below the national average. Lake homes do not carry hurricane deductibles, and flood insurance on a TVA-managed reservoir is a fraction of coastal rates. For an affluent buyer, the insurance gap alone can run $10,000 to $20,000 a year.
Property taxes: the Save Our Homes reset
Longtime Floridians pay low property taxes because the Save Our Homes cap limits assessed value increases to 3 percent a year. Sell and buy again, even within Florida, and your new home is assessed at full market value, with at most $500,000 of the old benefit transferable, and nothing for buyers arriving from out of state.
That reset is brutal on a luxury purchase. Coastal Florida rates for a new purchase commonly run 1.5 to 2 percent. At 1.75 percent, a $1.5 million home costs about $26,000 a year in property tax. Loudon County, Tennessee, home to WindRiver, set its 2026 rate at $1.0944 per $100 of assessed value on 25 percent of appraised value. The same $1.5 million home pays about $4,100.
About the November vote. Florida voters decide on November 3, 2026 whether to raise the homestead exemption on non-school taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028. It needs 60 percent to pass. If it does, a homesteaded $1.5 million home might save roughly $2,500 to $4,000 a year on the non-school portion. That narrows the gap. It does not close it, and second homes and rentals get nothing.
Both states have zero income tax and no estate or inheritance tax, so the tax comparison really is property tax plus insurance. One cost runs the other way: sales tax is about 7 percent in most of Florida versus 9 to 9.75 percent in Loudon County.
What about hurricanes? An honest answer for both states
Florida took three hurricane landfalls in 2024. Helene came ashore in the Big Bend as a Category 4 on September 26. Milton hit Siesta Key as a Category 3 two weeks later, the first hurricane to strike the Tampa Bay region in more than a century, with damage estimated at $34 billion. Every storm season resets insurance pricing and evacuation planning for the following year.
Now the honest part. Helene’s remnants dumped historic rain on far northeast Tennessee and western North Carolina. Unicoi County Hospital, near the North Carolina line, evacuated 54 patients from its roof. East Tennessee is not weather-proof. Its risk is mountain flash flooding in the steep counties along the Carolina border, not storm surge or sustained hurricane winds. Tellico Lake sits more than 100 miles west of that corridor in the Tennessee Valley, on a reservoir TVA manages specifically for flood control. You will still get thunderstorms and the occasional ice day. You will not get an evacuation order.
Crowding, traffic, and the lifestyle trade
Florida’s growth built a lot of six-lane roads and a lot of waiting. Loudon County has about 64,000 residents, and Knoxville, a real city with a major university and a Level I trauma center, is 30 minutes away. McGhee Tyson Airport is 15 to 20 minutes with nonstop flights to major hubs and to nine Florida cities, including Orlando, Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, and Sarasota, for the grandkids and the old neighbors.
The water is different too. Tellico Lake is 16,000 acres of stream-fed water flowing out of the Great Smoky Mountains, and WindRiver’s 222-slip marina handles boats up to 90 feet under cover, with shore power and a 24-hour fuel station. Nobody is hauling their boat inland ahead of a storm.
What Florida still does better
Be clear-eyed. Florida has no real winter. East Tennessee has four seasons, and January will see a few nights in the twenties and the occasional dusting of snow. Florida has the ocean; Tennessee has a lake and mountains. Florida’s big 55-plus communities have decades of programming, and its airports offer more nonstop routes. If daily beach access or year-round shorts are non-negotiable, stay. Many halfbacks solve this by keeping a Florida condo for January and February while making Tennessee home, which also settles the residency question cleanly since neither state taxes income.
Who should make the move, and who should stay?
The move pays if you: are buying or upsizing rather than sitting on a decades-old Save Our Homes assessment, own or plan to own a home above $1 million, are tired of the insurance renewal letter, or want mountains and a quieter pace with a real city nearby.
Stay in Florida if you: have a low locked-in assessment and a paid-off home, need to be at sea level and beach-adjacent, or have your medical team and social circle firmly rooted.
Why WindRiver for halfback retirees?
WindRiver is a gated, family-owned community on nearly 700 acres of Tellico Lake shoreline, with a Bob Cupp championship course, the marina, lakefront dining at Citico’s, a three-level Clubhouse Village with spa and fitness studio scheduled to open this fall, and more than 100 resident clubs. Eighty percent of owners live here full time, which matters if you are leaving Florida’s seasonal feel.
Homesites start in the $300s, golf cottages from $1.15 million, and lakefront estates from $2.1 million, built with one of six approved Premier Builders. Every owner holds a Social & Yacht membership at $330 a month, with a Championship Golf upgrade at $730, plus a $100,000 initiation fee at closing. Put those beside your Florida insurance and tax bills and see where the totals land.
Hospital access is close: Fort Loudoun Medical Center is 10 minutes away with a Leapfrog A grade, and UT Medical Center is 30 minutes. See our healthcare guide for details.
Frequently asked questions
Is Tennessee cheaper than Florida for retirees?
For most buyers, yes. Both states have no income tax, so the difference comes down to homeowners insurance and property tax on a new purchase, where Tennessee commonly saves $20,000 to $40,000 a year on a $1 million to $1.5 million home.
Does Tennessee tax retirement income or Social Security?
No. Pensions, IRA withdrawals, 401(k) distributions, and Social Security are all untaxed by the state.
Does East Tennessee get hurricanes?
No landfalling hurricanes. Remnant rain from Gulf storms can cause flooding in the far eastern mountains, as Helene did in 2024. The Tennessee Valley around Tellico Lake is more than 100 miles from that zone.
Can I keep my Florida homestead and move to Tennessee?
Not as a homestead. Florida homestead requires the home to be your permanent residence. Many halfbacks keep a Florida property as a second home, which loses Save Our Homes protection but works fine as a winter retreat.
How far is WindRiver from Florida?
Roughly a one-day drive up I-75 from most of the peninsula: about 9 hours from Tampa and 7.5 from Jacksonville. Nonstop flights connect Knoxville with nine Florida cities.
What is the climate like?
Four true seasons. Summers reach the high 80s with humidity, fall is spectacular, and winter brings a handful of nights below freezing with rare snow. Golf and boating run most of the year.
See it before you decide
Halfbacks usually visit two or three communities before choosing. Make WindRiver one of them. The Discovery Tour is three days and two nights for $795 per couple, with luxury lodging nearby, a $75 dinner credit at the Lakeside Inn, a round for two, VIP access to the amenities, and a private tour of homes and homesites. Our relocation timeline guide shows how a visit fits your planning.
Run your Florida insurance and tax numbers against the ones above. Then book a Discovery Tour or call 865-988-1864. The math usually makes the decision easier than expected.
